Epeus' epigone

Edifying exquisite equine entrapments

Wednesday, 7 December 2005

Key indicator for a bubble

Tristan is looking for bubble warnings.

The one that I look for, which I derived from reading Michael Lewis's Liar's Poker, and from my experiences in the CD-ROM publishing business in the mid 90's is this simple rule:

When expensively educated, fashionable young graduates start showing up in your field, you're in a bubble.

Lewis describes this in the investment banking business, when his entire Yale graduating class applied to become investment bankers.

The trouble with this indicator is that if you aren't looking for it it seem like the natural order of things - of course having personable young things hanging on your every word is to be expected - finally you're getting the recognition you deserve!

In practice, however, the finely-tuned herd instincts that get selected for in the Ivy League or the posher UK universities make them flock to the latest bubble.


Technorati Tags: bubble, meme

Posted by Kevin Marks at 00:41

16 comments:

Kevin Marks said...

Kevin Marks: @nitashatiku @alexia @rezendi @GallagherBilly you need all 3 words to fit.
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February 28, 2015 4:53 pm
Kevin Marks said...

Nitasha Tiku: @kevinmarks @alexia @rezendi @GallagherBilly imo there are better leading indicators of conformity than education
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February 28, 2015 4:54 pm
Kevin Marks said...

Nitasha Tiku: @kevinmarks @alexia @rezendi @GallagherBilly expensively educated like thiel, rabois, reid hoffman?
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February 28, 2015 4:54 pm
Kevin Marks said...

Mcsq Pro - xGlqry: RT @kevinmarks: “You know there’s a bubble,” the saying goes, “when the pretty people show up.” vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/i… close enough: epeus.blogspot.com/2005/12/key-in…
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September 02, 2015 1:41 am
Kevin Marks said...

Adina Levin: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 2:39 am
Kevin Marks said...

Moishe Lettvin: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 3:22 am
Kevin Marks said...

Loughlin O'Nolan: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 4:28 am
Kevin Marks said...

Andrei Lyskov: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 5:08 am
Kevin Marks said...

Peter Nõu: RT @kevinmarks: “You know there’s a bubble,” the saying goes, “when the pretty people show up.” vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/i… close enough: epeus.blogspot.com/2005/12/key-in…
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September 02, 2015 5:08 am
Kevin Marks said...

Rob Dolin: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 6:08 am
Kevin Marks said...

Molly B: RT @kevinmarks: “You know there’s a bubble,” the saying goes, “when the pretty people show up.” vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/i… close enough: epeus.blogspot.com/2005/12/key-in…
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September 02, 2015 6:44 am
Kevin Marks said...

Mary Trigiani: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 6:45 am
Kevin Marks said...

Molly B: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 6:46 am
Kevin Marks said...

Suw: RT @kevinmarks: “You know there’s a bubble,” the saying goes, “when the pretty people show up.” vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/i… close enough: epeus.blogspot.com/2005/12/key-in…
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September 02, 2015 6:46 am
Kevin Marks said...

R. R. Mutt: liked this.
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September 02, 2015 7:05 am
Kevin Marks said...

Simon Capstick: RT @kevinmarks: “You know there’s a bubble,” the saying goes, “when the pretty people show up.” vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/i… close enough: epeus.blogspot.com/2005/12/key-in…
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September 02, 2015 7:38 am

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Kevin Marks
Kevin Marks works on IndieWeb and open web tech. From 2011 to 2013 he was VP of Open Cloud Standards at Salesforce. From 2009 to 2010 he was VP of Web Services at BT. From 2007 to 2009, he worked at Google on OpenSocial. From 2003 to 2007 he was Principal Engineer at Technorati responsible for the spiders that make sense of the web and track millions of blogs daily. He has been inventing and innovating for over 25 years in emerging technologies where people, media and computers meet. Before joining Technorati, Kevin spent 5 years in the QuickTime Engineering team at Apple, building video capture and live streaming into OS X. He was a founder of The Multimedia Corporation in the UK, where he served as Production Manager and Executive Producer, shipping million-selling products and winning International awards. He has a Masters degree in Physics from Cambridge University and is a BBC-qualified Video Engineer. One of the driving forces behind microformats.org, he regularly speaks at conferences and symposia on emergent net technologies and their cultural impact.
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